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Daily Maximum Temperature Changes in August

Daily Maximum Temperature Changes in August

Temperatures increase through time but under the low scenario, there is a noticeable slowing after about the 2040s; however there is a marked acceleration after about the same period, under the high scenario. Probability bands in the 2050s are fairly similar in profile for all emission scenarios. By the 2080s there has been a significant move in the higher scenarios, which are wider and flatter. Significantly higher temperatures lie beyond the high end of our chosen 67% band (for example averages could be reach over 34ºC by 2080 under high emissions). Spatially, you can see that temperatures tend to increase towards a peak approximately over London. The August 2080 temperature curves are of similar width to the June-August Summer season but they are skewed more towards lower temperatures, hence the change in central estimates for temperature of the hottest day is likely to be up to a degree lower at: approx 1.5ºC warmer under the low scenario and approx 3ºC under the high scenario. Notice that in either scenario, average hottest day temperatures could be over 10ºC higher than the 1970s.

Under the Low emission scenario, there is a 67% chance that average daily maximum temperatures for August:

  • By the 2050s, will be between 22.5ºC and 26.1ºC. This would be between 1.3ºC and 4.9ºC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
  • By the 2080s, will be between 22.8ºC and 26.9ºC. This would be between 1.6ºC and 5.7ºC warmer than they were in the 1970s.

Under the High emission scenario, there is a 67% chance that average daily maximum temperatures for August:

  • By the 2050s, will be between 23.1ºC and 26.9ºC. This would be between 1.8ºC and 5.6ºC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
  • By the 2080s, will be between 24.1ºC and 30.2ºC. This would be between 2.9ºC and 9.0ºC warmer than they were in the 1970s.

Probability range

Probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios in the 2050s

August Daily Maximum temperatures in the 2050s

Probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios in the 2080s Probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios, showing Change temperatures in the 2080s (compared to 1961-90 period average)

August Daily Maximum temperatures in the 2080s

Time and space

Graph showing increase in temperature from the 2020s to the 2080s for the Low emission scenario. Probability bands are shown from 10%, through 50% to 90%. Graph showing increase in temperature from the 2020s to the 2080s for the High emission scenario. Probability bands are shown from 10%, through 50% to 90%.
Daily maximum temperature for August through time under the Low emissions scenario Daily maximum temperature for August through time under the High emissions scenario
Map of temperature, in the 2080s, at the 50% probability level, under the Low emission scenario Map of temperature, in the 2080s, at the 50% probability level, under the High emission scenario
Map of daily maximum temperature for August, in the 2080s, under the Low emissions scenario (at 50% probability) Map of daily maximum temperature for August, in the 2080s, under the High emissions scenario (at 50% probability)

Hottest day

Estimates for the highest and lowest temperatures are only available at a seasonal level. It is therefore sensible to check how the seasonal averages compare to the monthly averages.

Summer seasonal probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios in the 2080s Summer seasonal hottest day probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios in the 2080s

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Please notice that all of the maps and graphs are copyright © UK Climate Projections 2009

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